Dancing the Virginia Reel

For months, political observers have been saying Virginia was in play in the presidential election.

As a long-time political observer myself, I find that hard to believe.

Especially when people act as if the state has gone from being lopsidedly Republican to competitive virtually overnight.

What has been lopsided in Virginia is its support for the Republican presidential nominees. It is the only Southern state to vote Republican in every election since 1968.

But the margin hasn't always been lopsided.

When I was in high school, Democrat Jimmy Carter of Georgia was elected president, primarily with the help of a nearly Solid South.

The only Southern state that didn't support Carter against President Gerald Ford was Virginia.

It was close — Ford defeated Carter in Virginia by less than 24,000 votes out of nearly 1.7 million that were cast.

Prior to Election Day, both sides poured a lot of resources into the state. Democrats felt they had a good chance to win, even though Virginia had only voted for the Democratic ticket once in the previous six presidential elections.

Nevertheless, Virginia resisted the Carter candidacy.

When another Southerner, Bill Clinton of Arkansas, was elected in 1992 and re-elected in 1996, the results were close in Virginia again. Both President George H.W. Bush and Sen. Bob Dole carried the state for the Republicans, but both were held under 50% — due, in part, to the presence of Ross Perot on the ballot both times (although Perot's share of the Virginia vote was smaller than his share of the national vote in both elections).

George W. Bush kept the presidential streak going for the GOP with 52% of the vote in Virginia in 2000 and 53% in 2004, even though Democrats have been winning statewide races for governor and senator in recent elections.

I've never lived in Virginia. But it seems to me that the demographics show that there has been a population explosion in the northern part of the state, near the nation's capitol and various centers of economic development.

Conservatives in that part of the state appear to be economically conservative, not culturally conservative.

When Republicans lose the support of those voters, it appears to be largely because they've presided over an economic disaster. It is not a reaction to emotional issues — like abortion or gun control or gay marriage or flag burning.

In Virginia, cultural conservatives tend to live in areas farther south and west, in rural communities and military installations. But those areas haven't experienced the kind of growth northern Virginia has.

As for the polls ...

If you watch the polls, they've been all over the place in Virginia this year.

Lately, two pollsters completed surveys on the 21st. The NBC/Mason Dixon poll found Obama leading in Virginia, 47% to 45%. The CNN/Time survey found Obama's lead in the state was 54% to 44%.

Survey USA concluded a poll on the 19th and reported Obama was leading by 51% to 45%. On the 16th, Rasmussen said Obama's lead was 54% to 44%.

Add to the mix the theory that is going around these days — that Obama will lose up to six percentage points because of his race.

What can you believe?

Personally, I tend to put my faith in Larry Sabato, the director of the University of Virginia's Center for Politics who runs a political web site called "Crystal Ball '08," who also happens to be a long-time Virginia resident and observer of its political scene.

Today, Sabato writes that, in his revised projection for the general election, he is shifting Virginia from "toss-up" to "leans Obama."

Because of "Bush, the disastrous economy, the demographic growth of Northern Virginia and its strong Democratic tilt, the momentum built up by recent Democratic victories and the remarkable voter registration and voter contact efforts of a literal army of Obama staffers and volunteers," he believes Obama has built a lead of 2-3 percentage points in Virginia.

He also suggests that the Republicans' own campaign decisions should share the blame for whatever happens in Virginia on Election Day. "McCain's staff refused to believe Virginia was truly competitive for too long," he writes, "and the McCain-Palin visits were few."

That perception doesn't appear to be confined to Sabato.

In fact, it seems to me that it prompted McCain to make a deal with the devil.

I get the feeling that McCain and his running mate have redoubled their efforts in Pennsylvania to compensate for the anticipated losses of Virginia and Colorado to the Democrats.

Mathematically, McCain could afford to lose two previously dependably Republican states like Virginia and Colorado if he wins Pennsylvania. But I'm dubious about his ability to pull off.

Pennsylvania has voted Democratic in the last four elections. The margin has been closer since the end of the Clinton administration, but Gore and Kerry still managed to win the state with some breathing room.

I also remain skeptical about whether the Republicans actually will lose either Colorado or Virginia. Realistically, they cannot afford to lose any of the states that supported Bush four years ago.

But if McCain is destined to lose in Colorado and Virginia, he will have to compensate for losing those electoral votes by winning elsewhere. When you look at the voting results of the recent elections, you realize that there aren't too many plausible alternatives in that kind of scenario — for either side.

To date, most newspapers in Virginia haven't endorsed anyone in the presidential race. Some may be planning to do that this weekend — or next week.

Of the few that have endorsed a candidate, the Daily Press of Newport News has picked up some attention because it endorsed Kerry in 2004 but chose to endorse McCain this time.

Sabato may be right. Virginia may be leaning to Obama. With the financial resources Obama has been able to devote to states like Virginia, it wouldn't surprise many people.

And strong Democratic candidates for open Senate seats currently held by the Republicans could provide whatever additional acceleration the national ticket needs in traditionally Republican states like Virginia and Colorado.

But can a media blitz reverse a state's political preference? That's one of the questions that will be answered on Election Night.

Based on the state's voting patterns, the fact that polls have shown that Virginia has been competitive this year hasn't surprised me.

But, frankly, what will surprise me is if Virginia votes Democratic for only the second time in more than half a century.